Pro Tips: with Lead Guide Justin Ibarra
Terrain Selection Strategies on Considerable Avalanche Danger Days
A Considerable (Level 3 of 5) avalanche danger rating is one of the most misunderstood forecasts. While it doesn’t mean all terrain is hazardous, it does mean that dangerous avalanche conditions exist, human-triggered avalanches are likely, and careful terrain selection is essential.
According to the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC), the vast majority of avalanche fatalities in Colorado occur on days rated Moderate (Level 2) or Considerable (Level 3)…a stark reminder that many accidents happen when conditions seem manageable rather than extreme.
Rather than asking, “Can we ski this?” a better question would be, “What terrain gives us the greatest margin for error today?”
Colorado Adventure Guides Lead Guide Justin Ibarra, based in Silverthorne, Colorado, sees the same mistake repeated time and time again. He says “A common mistake people make is focusing only on the particular slope they want to recreate on rather than the terrain as a whole.”
That shift in perspective is the foundation of good decision-making. Especially on Considerable & Moderate days, terrain should be evaluated as an entire system- not as a single slope.
Step 1: Read Beyond the Considerable Avalanche Danger Rating
The overall danger rating is only the starting point. Before selecting terrain, take time to understand:
- The avalanche problems identified in the forecast
- Which aspects are most affected
- Which elevations are most hazardous
- Recent avalanche activity and where
- Expected weather changes throughout the day
- What observations you should be making while in the field
- What is your plan and backup options if things aren’t as you expected
The objective is to understand where the problem exists…not simply how dangerous the day is. As Justin explains:
“On Considerable avalanche danger days, things such as small terrain features, connected start zones, terrain traps, and overhead hazard all become much more consequential.“
Step 2: Let the Avalanche Problem Guide Terrain Choices
Certain avalanche problems tend to favor certain terrain. For example:
- Wind Slabs are commonly found on lee slopes and terrain features and near ridgelines.
- Persistent Slabs often affect certain elevations and aspects and can produce large, destructive avalanches.
- Wet Loose avalanches become more likely as solar warming and temperatures increase.
Terrain selection should begin by identifying where these problems are expected and considering whether those areas can be avoided. Justin’s take:
“Your observations for the day and the terrain you decide to travel into should match the avalanche problems that you are likely to encounter. It’s very important to align the terrain you decide to travel in with the conditions.”
Step 3: Seek Terrain With Larger Margins for Error
On Considerable avalanche days, conservative terrain choices reduce exposure to uncertainty. Characteristics may include:
- Lower-angle slopes
- Terrain with fewer or no overhead hazards
- Routes that avoid traveling beneath avalanche paths
- Options that allow easy changes in direction if conditions differ from expectations
The goal isn’t to outsmart avalanche terrain. It’s to spend more time in places where the consequences of uncertainty are lower.
Justin also cautions against trying to justify a decision that’s already making you uncomfortable, and encourages backcountry travelers to redefine their idea of a successful day.
“Good decision-making usually means choosing terrain with plenty of buffer rather than trying to thread the needle. You have to be honest with yourself and if you’re spending a lot of energy trying to convince yourself a slope is okay, then that should be telling you something. Don’t think of dialing it back as missing out.“
Some of the best days in the mountains don’t require skiing the biggest line.
“I’d rather spend the day finding great skiing/riding in more simple type of terrain than trying to justify getting into something more consequential. Some of my favorite days have been on low-angle terrain with good friends, good snow, and zero pressure to “send it”. The mountains aren’t going anywhere. The goal is to build a lifetime of days out there, not just one memorable run.”
Step 4: Build Decision Points Into the Day
Terrain selection is an ongoing process, not a one-time decision made at the trailhead. Throughout the day, continually compare your observations with the forecast. Ask yourself:
- Are recent avalanches present?
- Is the snow cracking or collapsing?
- Has wind transported more snow than expected?
- Are temperatures changing faster than forecast?
- Do current conditions match the original plan?
When observations and expectations no longer align, the terrain plan should change as well. This is exactly how our guides approach days with elevated avalanche danger. According to Justin, these are the days when preparation matters the most.
Before leaving the trailhead, guides have already analyzed the avalanche forecast, reviewed recent weather patterns and observations, discussed terrain options and opened and closed terrain, and established alternate plans.
Once in the field, Ibarra describes how this process continues:
“Once we’re in the field, we’re constantly making observations, communications with clients, and making conservative decisions when things don’t line up with our expectations. Does what we’re seeing match what we expected? If the answer is no, we’re completely comfortable changing the route, and already have alternate options built into our plan for the day to do so.”
Step 5: Match Terrain to the Group
Terrain should always be selected for the least experienced member of the group- not the strongest. Consider:
- Travel experience
- Avalanche education
- Physical fitness
- Communication styles
- Group size
- Group goals for the day
Complex terrain increases the likelihood that small mistakes can become significant problems. Justin’s take:
“Terrain choice is hazard management. It’s very important to match and align your group, with the conditions, with the terrain. When you are unfamiliar with any of those, dial it back and choose simpler terrain. “
The main goal for the day is to ski/ride tomorrow
A Useful Mindset: not just for Considerable Avalanche Danger Days
Justin says that making it a habit to match terrain to conditions is one of the most valuable skills a backcountry traveler can develop. Instead of asking: “Can we ski this slope?” try asking:
- What information supports this decision?
- What information challenges it?
- What are the consequences if something goes wrong?
- What would change my mind?
- If conditions are worse than expected, where is my exit?
- What terrain offers a similar experience with less exposure?
These questions encourage deliberate thinking rather than simply looking for reasons to continue with the original objective.
Good Terrain Selection Is Dynamic
The best terrain choice at 8:00 a.m. may not be the best choice at noon. Snowpack, weather, visibility, group energy, and field observations all change throughout the day. Strong decision-making means remaining willing to adjust objectives, shorten the route, or turn around when conditions warrant. Ultimately, Ibarra hopes people leave guided trips or avalanche education courses with something more valuable than simply checking off another tour.
“The backcountry has a way of rewarding patience, and the people who stay in it for decades are usually the ones who are okay with walking away from an initial plan when conditions don’t line up.” -Justin Ibarra
The mountains will always be there. Choosing terrain that matches the day’s conditions- and remaining willing to adapt as those conditions evolve- is one of the most valuable skills a backcountry traveler can develop.
“I hope people leave feeling more confident in how they think, not just what they know. Snowpacks change, forecasts change, touring groups change, and every day is different.
We hope clients really enjoy their experience, but also leave with an avalanche education framework they can continue building on. If someone goes home a little more curious, a little more patient, and with an eagerness and stoke to continue getting out and enjoying the journey, then I feel like we’ve done our job.”
